Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.94 – 153.66

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

177 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.3 ±12.4

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 176.35Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 34.6Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 21.99Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373 ±12.4

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 165.57Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -22.05Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 10.14Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7407, 5142, 2785

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7407, 5142, 2785

Auto

46.5 21%

Teleop

125.7 56%

Endgame

52.7 23%

Strengths

· 7407 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2067, 11409, 181

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2067, 11409, 181

Auto

45.9 30%

Teleop

83.4 54%

Endgame

23.9 16%

Strengths

· 2067 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232.9pts

Blue projected score153.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.3
Score range: 123–264
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 169.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.3Season APEX373

46.5Auto45.9

125.7Teleop83.4

52.7Endgame23.9

88Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	57
teleop	102	94
endgame	15	70
foul	5	0
total	177	221

Result

Final score

177 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 61.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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