Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.81 – 102.87

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 93.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.2 ±10.4

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 78.36Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 54.88Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 58.57Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±11.7

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX -4.47Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -23.03Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 130.37Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 558, 2170, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 558, 2170, 8889

Auto

29.9 16%

Teleop

122.6 65%

Endgame

34.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11131, 3719, 236

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11131, 3719, 236

Auto

17.8 16%

Teleop

61.3 56%

Endgame

30.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.8pts

Blue projected score102.9pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.9
Score range: 73–222
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 168.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.2Season APEX321.8

29.9Auto17.8

122.6Teleop61.3

34.8Endgame30.1

107Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	57
teleop	52	108
endgame	41	52
foul	0	15
total	134	232

Result

Final score

134 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 93.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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