Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.99 – 273.39

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±11

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 94.2Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX -5.77Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 38.56Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.6 ±12.4

7760Griffin Innovations

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 65.9Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 23.34Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 184.15Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 126, 3182, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 126, 3182, 1991

Auto

22.1 18%

Teleop

48.8 39%

Endgame

54.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7760, 5746, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7760, 5746, 571

Auto

34.2 13%

Teleop

170.6 63%

Endgame

64.8 24%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score273.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.4
Score range: 96–304
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 169.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.2Season APEX386.6

22.1Auto34.2

48.8Teleop170.6

54Endgame64.8

4Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	52
teleop	40	84
endgame	18	88
foul	0	0
total	76	224

Result

Final score

76 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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