Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.1 – 244.84

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±12.2

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 67.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 36.47Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 4.69Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.9 ±11.7

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 48.69Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 42.69Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 153.46Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 429, 9710, 181

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 429, 9710, 181

Auto

14.9 14%

Teleop

58.9 56%

Endgame

31.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3461, 11464, 2067

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3461, 11464, 2067

Auto

70.6 29%

Teleop

128.2 53%

Endgame

41.6 17%

Strengths

· 2067 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score244.8pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.7
Score range: 79–275
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 168.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.8Season APEX412.9

14.9Auto70.6

58.9Teleop128.2

31.8Endgame41.6

28Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	80
teleop	72	141
endgame	41	80
foul	5	0
total	151	301

Result

Final score

151 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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