Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.89 – 70.02

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 84.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.3 ±11.7

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -19.62Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 20.11Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 103.4Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.4 ±13.9

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 37.2Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 62.85Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3634Bridgeport Spark City

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX -30.03Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10266, 177, 236

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10266, 177, 236

Auto

24.8 24%

Teleop

33.6 32%

Endgame

45.7 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5856, 4628, 3634

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5856, 4628, 3634

Auto

17.4 29%

Teleop

37.1 62%

Endgame

5.5 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.9pts

Blue projected score70pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.9
Score range: 40–134
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 169.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.3Season APEX218.4

24.8Auto17.4

33.6Teleop37.1

45.7Endgame5.5

115Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	11
teleop	161	1
endgame	40	12
foul	0	15
total	242	39

Result

Final score

242 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 84.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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