Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.79 – 128.86

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±10.5

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 151.72Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 23.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 49.24Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.6 ±12.2

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX -3.88Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 21.81Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 110.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 571, 155, 429

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 571, 155, 429

Auto

30.4 13%

Teleop

145.0 64%

Endgame

49.8 22%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11131, 10245, 126

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11131, 10245, 126

Auto

43.4 35%

Teleop

63.1 51%

Endgame

17.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score224.8pts

Blue projected score128.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.9
Score range: 100–254
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433Season APEX255.6

30.4Auto43.4

145Teleop63.1

49.8Endgame17.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	31
teleop	203	31
endgame	81	44
foul	0	0
total	363	106

Result

Final score

363 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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