Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.78 – 132.08

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 77.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.6 ±11.7

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 59.85Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 98.68Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 13.25Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.5 ±12.8

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 34.9Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 39.48Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 57.7Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2170, 236, 11464

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2170, 236, 11464

Auto

32.7 19%

Teleop

85.3 50%

Endgame

54.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6346, 5856, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6346, 5856, 177

Auto

20.8 16%

Teleop

79.1 62%

Endgame

26.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.8pts

Blue projected score132.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.7
Score range: 103–201
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 161.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.6Season APEX257.5

32.7Auto20.8

85.3Teleop79.1

54Endgame26.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	48
teleop	152	24
endgame	46	3
foul	0	0
total	270	75

Result

Final score

270 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 77.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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