Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
74.81 – 130.98
33%67%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
38 – 182
Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 27.23Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 79.39Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50Event APEX -31.81Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 24.53Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 69.71Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 80Event APEX 36.74Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11409, 1991, 10266
47
/ 100 compatProjected
74.8 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 11409, 1991, 10266
Auto
25.7 33%
Teleop
35.5 46%
Endgame
16.4 21%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4628, 558, 5142
61
/ 100 compatProjected
131 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4628, 558, 5142
Auto
30.5 25%
Teleop
68.4 56%
Endgame
22.8 19%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score74.8pts
Blue projected score131pts
Red win probability33%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -56.2
- Score range
- 45–161
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
178.1Season APEX245.1
25.7Auto30.5
35.5Teleop68.4
16.4Endgame22.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 24 |
| teleop | 8 | 93 |
| endgame | 13 | 50 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 38 | 182 |
Result
Final score
38 – 182
Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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