Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.62 – 178.94

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.8 ±12.8

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 61.77Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 42.76Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -22.91Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.5 ±11.7

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 92.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 46.13Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 40.71Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 175, 2785, 3719

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 175, 2785, 3719

Auto

19.1 23%

Teleop

35.9 44%

Endgame

27.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1699, 9193, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1699, 9193, 228

Auto

16.0 9%

Teleop

117.9 66%

Endgame

44.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.6pts

Blue projected score178.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.3
Score range: 53–208
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.8Season APEX350.5

19.1Auto16

35.9Teleop117.9

27.1Endgame44.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	34
teleop	58	171
endgame	21	72
foul	0	5
total	100	282

Result

Final score

100 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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