Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.65 – 135.97

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

284 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 95.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.2 ±11.7

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX -20.04Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 131.78Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 1.91Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±10.4

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 70.77Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 18.32Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 46.88Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 181, 7407, 3461

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 181, 7407, 3461

Auto

31.5 28%

Teleop

55.8 50%

Endgame

23.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3146, 3182, 9710

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3146, 3182, 9710

Auto

26.4 20%

Teleop

77.4 59%

Endgame

28.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.7pts

Blue projected score136pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: 85–165
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.2Season APEX307.1

31.5Auto26.4

55.8Teleop77.4

23.7Endgame28.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	21
teleop	150	69
endgame	69	26
foul	15	0
total	284	116

Result

Final score

284 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 95.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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