Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.22 – 229.9

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.6 ±12.8

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 7.23Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 48.06Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3634Bridgeport Spark City

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 3.93Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±11.1

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 131.04Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 30.77Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 68.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11464, 8889, 3634

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11464, 8889, 3634

Auto

8.3 15%

Teleop

30.9 54%

Endgame

17.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2067, 10133, 126

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2067, 10133, 126

Auto

47.5 22%

Teleop

124.7 57%

Endgame

47.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.2pts

Blue projected score229.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170.7
Score range: 31–258
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 156.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.6Season APEX411

8.3Auto47.5

30.9Teleop124.7

17.9Endgame47.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	68
teleop	30	173
endgame	20	85
foul	5	0
total	89	326

Result

Final score

89 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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