Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
141.69 – 170.69
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
155 – 125
Prediction missed · off by 29.5 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.4 ±11.7
Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 69.06Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 68.87Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 3.76Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 80Event APEX 51.29Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 35.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 83.74Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 177, 2170, 7760
62
/ 100 compatProjected
141.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 177, 2170, 7760
Auto
19.2 14%
Teleop
84.8 64%
Endgame
29.4 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5142, 155, 1991
69
/ 100 compatProjected
170.7 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 5142, 155, 1991
Auto
24.4 15%
Teleop
104.8 63%
Endgame
37.2 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.74
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score141.7pts
Blue projected score170.7pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -29
- Score range
- 114–199
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
315.4Season APEX254.9
19.2Auto24.4
84.8Teleop104.8
29.4Endgame37.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 43 |
| teleop | 99 | 65 |
| endgame | 42 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 155 | 125 |
Result
Final score
155 – 125
Prediction missed · off by 29.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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