Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.01 – 138.47

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.7 ±11.7

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 87.23Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 7.17Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 56.61Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.7 ±12.2

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 38.35Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 56.59Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 43.53Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 155, 11409, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

151 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 155, 11409, 558

Auto

39.7 27%

Teleop

84.4 57%

Endgame

24.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 181, 175, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 181, 175, 10133

Auto

21.5 16%

Teleop

73.2 53%

Endgame

42.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151pts

Blue projected score138.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.5
Score range: 105–184
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 184.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.7Season APEX247.7

39.7Auto21.5

84.4Teleop73.2

24.1Endgame42.9

51Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	15
teleop	88	69
endgame	25	33
foul	0	5
total	139	122

Result

Final score

139 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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