Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

439.12 – 302

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.1 ±9.3

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 46.93Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 198.88Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 193.31Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 507.1 ±9.8

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 120.51Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 12.32Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 169.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1991, 571, 2067

/ 100 compat

Projected

439.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1991, 571, 2067

Auto

85.5 20%

Teleop

245.4 56%

Endgame

107.4 25%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 177, 3182, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

302 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 177, 3182, 7407

Auto

43.5 15%

Teleop

171.8 59%

Endgame

78.3 27%

Strengths

· 7407 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score439.1pts

Blue projected score302pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.1
Score range: 269–472
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 180.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.1Season APEX507.1

85.5Auto43.5

245.4Teleop171.8

107.4Endgame78.3

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	48
teleop	193	201
endgame	40	66
foul	0	0
total	334	315

Result

Final score

334 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Match videos

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