Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

423.13 – 411.09

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

343 – 474

Prediction missed · off by 71.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.8 ±9.3

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 23.93Rank 28Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 251.11Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 148.09Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 642.1 ±9.9

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 30.94Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 144.84Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 235.31Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3182, 2067, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.1 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3182, 2067, 571

Auto

69.1 16%

Teleop

256.6 61%

Endgame

93.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4572, 7407, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4572, 7407, 176

Auto

92.2 22%

Teleop

211.0 51%

Endgame

108.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score423.1pts

Blue projected score411.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12
Score range: 360–474
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 817 vs event baseline 283.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.8Season APEX642.1

69.1Auto92.2

256.6Teleop211

93.9Endgame108.4

45Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	101
teleop	164	265
endgame	109	108
foul	0	0
total	343	474

Result

Final score

343 – 474

Prediction missed · off by 71.5 pts