Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.79 – 136.27

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.1 ±10.4

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 51.84Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 33.61Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 119.34Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.8 ±10.4

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 63.79Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 68.4Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 4.08Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1991, 178, 155

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1991, 178, 155

Auto

32.8 16%

Teleop

100.4 49%

Endgame

71.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 228, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1071, 228, 999

Auto

30.3 22%

Teleop

72.1 53%

Endgame

32.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score204.8pts

Blue projected score136.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.5
Score range: 85–256
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 285.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.1Season APEX343.8

32.8Auto30.3

100.4Teleop72.1

71Endgame32.4

29Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	31
teleop	100	21
endgame	39	35
foul	0	0
total	186	87

Result

Final score

186 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts