Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.28 – 242.56

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

552 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 162.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.1 ±9.9

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX -3.29Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 110.38Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 209.19Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.6 ±10.4

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 105.23Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 86.64Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 50.69Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4572, 7407, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4572, 7407, 176

Auto

87.1 28%

Teleop

139.4 44%

Endgame

90.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3146, 173, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3146, 173, 558

Auto

43.6 18%

Teleop

144.7 61%

Endgame

47.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score316.3pts

Blue projected score242.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.7
Score range: 192–367
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 705 vs event baseline 282.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.1Season APEX323.6

87.1Auto43.6

139.4Teleop144.7

90.1Endgame47.4

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	59
teleop	306	55
endgame	138	39
foul	0	0
total	552	153

Result

Final score

552 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 162.6 pts