Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

365.17 – 286.55

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

522 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 115.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.8 ±9.3

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX -6.7Rank 28Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 237.42Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 134.45Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.8 ±11

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 52.72Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 100.53Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 133.3Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3182, 2067, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3182, 2067, 571

Auto

57.2 16%

Teleop

239.5 66%

Endgame

65.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 429, 8085, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 429, 8085, 177

Auto

68.9 25%

Teleop

116.8 42%

Endgame

94.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score365.2pts

Blue projected score286.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.6
Score range: 237–415
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 735 vs event baseline 280.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.8Season APEX369.8

57.2Auto68.9

239.5Teleop116.8

65.9Endgame94.5

97Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	60
teleop	274	104
endgame	143	49
foul	5	0
total	522	213

Result

Final score

522 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 115.2 pts