Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

386.81 – 332.79

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

322 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.8 ±9.3

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 10.78Rank 28Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 238.02Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 138.01Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.4 ±10.4

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 47.54Rank 21Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 127.15Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 158.1Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3182, 2067, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.8 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3182, 2067, 571

Auto

68.5 18%

Teleop

223.6 58%

Endgame

92.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 175, 236, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.8 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 175, 236, 230

Auto

55.4 17%

Teleop

177.8 54%

Endgame

93.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score386.8pts

Blue projected score332.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54
Score range: 280–440
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 292.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.8Season APEX409.4

68.5Auto55.4

223.6Teleop177.8

92.5Endgame93.5

61Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	55
teleop	157	128
endgame	57	100
foul	5	15
total	322	298

Result

Final score

322 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 pts