Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

517.57 – 430.29

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

504 – 415

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586.8 ±9.8

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 26.88Rank 17Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 256.5Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 234.19Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 642.1 ±9.9

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 36.93Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 149.87Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 243.49Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2170, 1699, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

517.6 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2170, 1699, 195

Auto

111.2 22%

Teleop

275.6 54%

Endgame

119.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4572, 7407, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4572, 7407, 176

Auto

94.1 22%

Teleop

228.1 53%

Endgame

108.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score517.6pts

Blue projected score430.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.3
Score range: 378–570
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 919 vs event baseline 288.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586.8Season APEX642.1

111.2Auto94.1

275.6Teleop228.1

119.3Endgame108.5

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	115
teleop	285	181
endgame	168	109
foul	0	10
total	504	415

Result

Final score

504 – 415

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts