Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.57 – 182.6

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 91.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.5 ±11

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 81.79Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 57.52Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 7.26Rank 23Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404 ±11.2

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 17.59Rank 24Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 145.09Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 19.92Rank 27Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8085, 228, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8085, 228, 10133

Auto

27.7 20%

Teleop

69.8 51%

Endgame

40.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11409, 7407, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11409, 7407, 3654

Auto

20.1 11%

Teleop

92.6 53%

Endgame

63.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score146.6pts

Blue projected score182.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36
Score range: 95–235
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 288.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.5Season APEX404

27.7Auto20.1

69.8Teleop92.6

40.5Endgame63

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	46
teleop	162	150
endgame	92	24
foul	5	0
total	292	220

Result

Final score

292 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 91.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree