Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.91 – 212.02

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.9 ±10.4

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 59.13Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 157.27Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 44.51Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.5 ±10.4

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 44.84Rank 21Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 33.09Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 134.09Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1071, 230, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.9 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1071, 230, 558

Auto

46.5 18%

Teleop

126.3 49%

Endgame

84.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 175, 178, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

212 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 175, 178, 177

Auto

45.2 22%

Teleop

111.8 54%

Endgame

48.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score260.9pts

Blue projected score212pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.9
Score range: 157–316
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 303.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.9Season APEX382.5

46.5Auto45.2

126.3Teleop111.8

84.4Endgame48.3

83Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	43
teleop	171	129
endgame	95	45
foul	0	10
total	302	227

Result

Final score

302 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree