Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.31 – 199.74

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 73.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±10.5

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 63.66Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 129.82Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 40.83Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.1 ±10.4

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 97.5Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 0.15Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 102.09Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 173, 571, 4572

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 173, 571, 4572

Auto

38.4 17%

Teleop

152.9 66%

Endgame

38.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8085, 999, 3146

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8085, 999, 3146

Auto

47.0 24%

Teleop

86.1 45%

Endgame

59.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score234.3pts

Blue projected score199.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.6
Score range: 145–289
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 303.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.4Season APEX382.1

38.4Auto47

152.9Teleop86.1

38.7Endgame59.3

28Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	46
teleop	133	137
endgame	6	67
foul	0	15
total	153	265

Result

Final score

153 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 73.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree