Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

221.48 – 354.54

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

255 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.9 ±11.7

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 124.87Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 6.89Rank 24Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 89.72Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.2 ±11

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 49.46Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 72.24Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 232.84Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 177, 11409, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.5 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 177, 11409, 173

Auto

38.8 18%

Teleop

130.2 59%

Endgame

50.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 429, 1991, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.5 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 429, 1991, 1699

Auto

68.2 19%

Teleop

189.8 53%

Endgame

98.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score221.5pts

Blue projected score354.5pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.1
Score range: 170–406
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 638 vs event baseline 282.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.9Season APEX350.2

38.8Auto68.2

130.2Teleop189.8

50.1Endgame98.7

28Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	82
teleop	143	179
endgame	54	117
foul	10	5
total	255	383

Result

Final score

255 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree