Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

293.83 – 302.51

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

343 – 306

Prediction missed · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 530.7 ±9.8

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 110.17Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 69.18Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 114.48Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.4 ±11.7

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 246.97Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 59.32Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -3.78Rank 24Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 571, 1071, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.8 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 571, 1071, 177

Auto

69.1 23%

Teleop

167.6 57%

Endgame

57.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2067, 429, 11409

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2067, 429, 11409

Auto

56.6 19%

Teleop

180.3 61%

Endgame

59.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score293.8pts

Blue projected score302.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.7
Score range: 245–352
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 275.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

530.7Season APEX383.4

69.1Auto56.6

167.6Teleop180.3

57.5Endgame59.5

66Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	54
teleop	189	188
endgame	88	59
foul	0	5
total	343	306

Result

Final score

343 – 306

Prediction missed · off by 26.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree