Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

192.37 – 271.14

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 83.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±10.4

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 101.95Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 17.38Rank 17Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 73.04Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.6 ±10.5

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 138.41Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 32.58Rank 23Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 100.15Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3146, 2170, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3146, 2170, 1991

Auto

45.2 24%

Teleop

77.2 41%

Endgame

63.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7407, 10133, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.1 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7407, 10133, 558

Auto

39.9 14%

Teleop

141.5 51%

Endgame

95.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score192.4pts

Blue projected score271.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.8
Score range: 141–322
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 281.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.5Season APEX417.6

45.2Auto39.9

77.2Teleop141.5

63.8Endgame95.4

48Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	65
teleop	81	53
endgame	56	12
foul	0	0
total	166	130

Result

Final score

166 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 83.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree