Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.89 – 212.39

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 515

Prediction missed · off by 203.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.7 ±10.4

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 149.41Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 97.88Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 44.6Rank 27Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.1 ±11

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX -52.1Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 182.25Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 82.24Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 155, 228, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 155, 228, 3654

Auto

35.1 12%

Teleop

180.2 64%

Endgame

67.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4572, 1699, 236

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.4 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4572, 1699, 236

Auto

86.7 41%

Teleop

110.6 53%

Endgame

13.1 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score291.9pts

Blue projected score212.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.5
Score range: 162–342
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 703 vs event baseline 277.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.7Season APEX450.1

35.1Auto86.7

180.2Teleop110.6

67.6Endgame13.1

62Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	76
teleop	90	285
endgame	56	154
foul	0	0
total	188	515

Result

Final score

188 – 515

Prediction missed · off by 203.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree