Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.09 – 223.41

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 97.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.6 ±10.4

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX -3.14Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 39.86Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 112.37Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.5 ±10.4

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 99.1Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX -5.59Rank 28Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 129.9Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8889, 178, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8889, 178, 230

Auto

37.9 27%

Teleop

31.6 22%

Endgame

71.5 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 173, 3182, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 173, 3182, 8085

Auto

46.5 22%

Teleop

123.3 58%

Endgame

42.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score149.1pts

Blue projected score223.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.3
Score range: 99–273
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 280.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.6Season APEX318.5

37.9Auto46.5

31.6Teleop123.3

71.5Endgame42.9

100Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	25
teleop	168	95
endgame	83	39
foul	5	0
total	280	159

Result

Final score

280 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 97.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree