Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.46 – 200.41

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 305

Prediction missed · off by 116 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.2 ±10.4

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 41.98Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 74.35Rank 27Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 117.13Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.3 ±9.8

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 63.24Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 111.05Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 26.12Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8889, 3654, 236

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8889, 3654, 236

Auto

61.2 27%

Teleop

123.7 54%

Endgame

44.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1991, 571, 178

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1991, 571, 178

Auto

38.9 19%

Teleop

140.8 70%

Endgame

21.7 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score233.5pts

Blue projected score200.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.1
Score range: 150–283
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 278.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.2Season APEX445.3

61.2Auto38.9

123.7Teleop140.8

44.4Endgame21.7

167Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	19
teleop	29	180
endgame	25	106
foul	0	0
total	106	305

Result

Final score

106 – 305

Prediction missed · off by 116 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree