Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

252.37 – 432.21

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

342 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 111.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.4 ±10.5

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX -61.57Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 189.6Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 124.34Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518 ±9.8

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 138.2Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 158Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 136.01Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4572, 195, 155

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.4 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4572, 195, 155

Auto

53.1 21%

Teleop

128.9 51%

Endgame

69.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7407, 173, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7407, 173, 230

Auto

61.7 14%

Teleop

283.9 66%

Endgame

82.0 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score252.4pts

Blue projected score432.2pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -179.8
Score range: 202–482
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 641 vs event baseline 279.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.4Season APEX518

53.1Auto61.7

128.9Teleop283.9

69.8Endgame82

119Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	61
teleop	158	123
endgame	80	110
foul	20	5
total	342	299

Result

Final score

342 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 111.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree