Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

372.28 – 193.22

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

358 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 97 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570.9 ±9.8

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 120.48Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 129.53Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 122.27Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482 ±10.5

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 146.22Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 59.54Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX -12.54Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 236, 7407, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.3 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 236, 7407, 8085

Auto

39.1 11%

Teleop

242.2 65%

Endgame

90.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 195, 1071, 429

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.2 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 195, 1071, 429

Auto

53.5 28%

Teleop

78.5 41%

Endgame

58.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score372.3pts

Blue projected score193.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179.1
Score range: 142–423
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 731 vs event baseline 283.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570.9Season APEX482

39.1Auto53.5

242.2Teleop78.5

90Endgame58.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	97
teleop	161	188
endgame	88	88
foul	0	0
total	358	373

Result

Final score

358 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 97 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree