Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.71 – 327.14

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

531 – 368

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 649.4 ±9.3

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 121.74Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 236.35Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 49.62Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.1 ±10.4

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 58.47Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 114.65Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 154.02Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 230, 2067, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.7 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 230, 2067, 571

Auto

33.0 8%

Teleop

270.8 67%

Endgame

101.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 558, 155, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 558, 155, 173

Auto

46.2 14%

Teleop

209.8 64%

Endgame

71.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score407.7pts

Blue projected score327.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.6
Score range: 279–456
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 899 vs event baseline 266.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

649.4Season APEX290.1

33Auto46.2

270.8Teleop209.8

101.6Endgame71.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	46
teleop	347	216
endgame	92	101
foul	10	5
total	531	368

Result

Final score

531 – 368

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree