Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.1 – 126.83

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 21.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.9 ±11

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 64.88Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 96.92Rank 21Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX -37.7Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.1 ±10.4

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 27.39Rank 28Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 87.08Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 12.36Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3146, 175, 4572

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.1 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3146, 175, 4572

Auto

18.2 16%

Teleop

69.4 62%

Endgame

24.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3182, 1991, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3182, 1991, 8889

Auto

57.0 46%

Teleop

30.2 24%

Endgame

37.1 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score124.1pts

Blue projected score126.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample86alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.7
Score range: 73–178
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 284.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.9Season APEX252.1

18.2Auto57

69.4Teleop30.2

24.4Endgame37.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	41
teleop	27	30
endgame	22	31
foul	5	0
total	106	102

Result

Final score

106 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree