Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.48 – 113.14

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437 ±12.7

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 26.01Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 98.28Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 66.19Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.7 ±13.3

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 18.85Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 28.77Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 65.52Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3648, 1339, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3648, 1339, 4068

Auto

45.9 25%

Teleop

95.9 52%

Endgame

42.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9586, 7485, 4944

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9586, 7485, 4944

Auto

12.4 11%

Teleop

67.5 61%

Endgame

29.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.5pts

Blue projected score113.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.3
Score range: 80–223
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 180.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437Season APEX350.7

45.9Auto12.4

95.9Teleop67.5

42Endgame29.9

49Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	10
teleop	76	86
endgame	62	59
foul	10	0
total	183	155

Result

Final score

183 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Match videos

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