Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

456.59 – 182.71

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 719.8 ±10.5

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 27.95Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 187.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 241.15Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437 ±12.7

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 23.28Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 95.78Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 63.65Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3288, 8044, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.6 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 8044, 498

Auto

90.4 20%

Teleop

249.9 56%

Endgame

109.9 24%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3648, 1339, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3648, 1339, 4068

Auto

45.3 26%

Teleop

92.5 53%

Endgame

37.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score456.6pts

Blue projected score182.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 273.9
Score range: 151–489
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 177.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

719.8Season APEX437

90.4Auto45.3

249.9Teleop92.5

109.9Endgame37.2

7Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	51
teleop	167	107
endgame	94	68
foul	5	0
total	362	226

Result

Final score

362 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 pts

Match videos

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