Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.77 – 105.24

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.6 ±12.8

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 36.7Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 33.91Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 45.16Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.7 ±13.3

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 16.84Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 25.76Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 62.64Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10114, 159, 4293

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 159, 4293

Auto

23.3 20%

Teleop

53.1 46%

Endgame

38.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9586, 7485, 4944

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9586, 7485, 4944

Auto

10.9 11%

Teleop

58.7 58%

Endgame

31.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.8pts

Blue projected score105.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.5
Score range: 73–148
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 177.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.6Season APEX350.7

23.3Auto10.9

53.1Teleop58.7

38.4Endgame31.6

12Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	22
teleop	24	106
endgame	0	22
foul	25	0
total	72	150

Result

Final score

72 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 44.3 pts

Match videos

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