Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.61 – 136.96

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.5 ±12.7

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 56.75Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 22.97Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 16.89Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.5 ±12.8

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 8.07Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 12.91Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 115.98Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9134, 6358, 11220

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9134, 6358, 11220

Auto

20.0 22%

Teleop

38.3 42%

Endgame

33.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10333, 5493, 2240

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 5493, 2240

Auto

46.3 35%

Teleop

66.2 50%

Endgame

19.0 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score137pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.4
Score range: 65–169
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 179.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.5Season APEX376.5

20Auto46.3

38.3Teleop66.2

33.5Endgame19

59Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	13
teleop	49	45
endgame	23	34
foul	0	5
total	99	97

Result

Final score

99 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 pts

Match videos

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