Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.56 – 94.58

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622 ±11.7

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 35.13Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 95.27Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 122.16Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.7 ±13.3

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 13.32Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 22.13Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 59.13Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1977, 1619, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1977, 1619, 2996

Auto

45.8 18%

Teleop

134.2 53%

Endgame

71.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9586, 7485, 4944

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9586, 7485, 4944

Auto

11.1 12%

Teleop

54.7 61%

Endgame

23.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score252.6pts

Blue projected score94.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158
Score range: 63–285
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 178.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622Season APEX350.7

45.8Auto11.1

134.2Teleop54.7

71.5Endgame23.6

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	10
teleop	112	75
endgame	61	64
foul	35	0
total	260	149

Result

Final score

260 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Match videos

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