Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.59 – 177.61

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.8 ±12.8

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 11.95Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 75.72Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 119.92Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437 ±12.7

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 20.79Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 93.59Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 63.23Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10333, 4388, 2240

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 4388, 2240

Auto

49.3 25%

Teleop

111.9 57%

Endgame

35.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3648, 1339, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3648, 1339, 4068

Auto

43.3 25%

Teleop

90.7 53%

Endgame

38.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score207.6pts

Blue projected score177.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30
Score range: 146–240
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 177.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.8Season APEX437

49.3Auto43.3

111.9Teleop90.7

35.5Endgame38.1

15Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	50
teleop	83	96
endgame	33	30
foul	0	20
total	152	196

Result

Final score

152 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 37 pts

Match videos

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