Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

447.39 – 128.31

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

495 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 719.8 ±10.5

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 25.87Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 184Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 237.52Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.3 ±12.7

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 57.34Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 23.45Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 47.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3288, 8044, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

447.4 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 8044, 498

Auto

86.8 20%

Teleop

243.5 55%

Endgame

108.6 25%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9134, 6358, 9501

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9134, 6358, 9501

Auto

31.9 26%

Teleop

54.9 45%

Endgame

34.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score447.4pts

Blue projected score128.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 319.1
Score range: 96–479
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 175.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

719.8Season APEX287.3

86.8Auto31.9

243.5Teleop54.9

108.6Endgame34.6

30Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	37
teleop	275	53
endgame	116	34
foul	0	0
total	495	124

Result

Final score

495 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Match videos

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