Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.9 – 190.83

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622 ±11.7

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 35.2Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 96.68Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 123.02Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437 ±12.7

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 27.31Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 97.11Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 66.41Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1977, 1619, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1977, 1619, 2996

Auto

52.4 21%

Teleop

122.8 50%

Endgame

71.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3648, 1339, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3648, 1339, 4068

Auto

44.0 24%

Teleop

94.2 51%

Endgame

45.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score254.9pts

Blue projected score190.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.1
Score range: 158–288
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 181.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622Season APEX437

52.4Auto44

122.8Teleop94.2

71.4Endgame45.6

0Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	45
teleop	100	83
endgame	41	87
foul	5	5
total	228	220

Result

Final score

228 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Match videos

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