Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.46 – 125.83

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622 ±11.7

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 37.28Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 99.2Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 123.98Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.3 ±12.7

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 56.16Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 23.45Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 46.22Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1977, 1619, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1977, 1619, 2996

Auto

51.0 20%

Teleop

128.0 50%

Endgame

74.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9134, 6358, 9501

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9134, 6358, 9501

Auto

33.2 27%

Teleop

56.3 46%

Endgame

32.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score260.5pts

Blue projected score125.8pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 134.6
Score range: 94–292
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 180.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622Season APEX287.3

51Auto33.2

128Teleop56.3

74.9Endgame32.1

0Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	52
teleop	82	52
endgame	43	43
foul	20	15
total	208	162

Result

Final score

208 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Match videos

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