Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.72 – 222.13

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 549

Prediction correct · off by 218.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.4 ±13.3

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 50.53Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 46.13Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 46.06Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 713.1 ±11.7

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 18.99Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 85.43Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 117.71Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3648, 11220, 3288

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3648, 11220, 3288

Auto

34.3 26%

Teleop

81.2 61%

Endgame

18.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1977, 498, 9068

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1977, 498, 9068

Auto

52.5 24%

Teleop

134.4 62%

Endgame

30.8 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.7pts

Blue projected score222.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.4
Score range: 115–250
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 582 vs event baseline 158.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.4Season APEX713.1

34.3Auto52.5

81.2Teleop134.4

18.1Endgame30.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	102
teleop	13	317
endgame	3	125
foul	0	5
total	33	549

Result

Final score

33 – 549

Prediction correct · off by 218.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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