Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.85 – 58.49

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.8 ±11.7

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 28.57Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 8.57Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 65.71Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.1 ±12.2

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 12.82Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 20Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 25.67Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4418, 9501, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 9501, 4499

Auto

24.3 24%

Teleop

62.0 62%

Endgame

13.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10114, 3807, 4944

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 3807, 4944

Auto

17.4 30%

Teleop

27.7 49%

Endgame

12.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.9pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.4
Score range: 29–132
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 163.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.8Season APEX328.1

24.3Auto17.4

62Teleop27.7

13.7Endgame12

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	13
teleop	139	45
endgame	52	19
foul	0	0
total	253	77

Result

Final score

253 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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