Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.11 – 116.93

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

388 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 127 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.8 ±12.9

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 45.59Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -18.49Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 185.01Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273 ±13.9

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 71.33Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 31.68Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 13.92Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4944, 2945, 9068

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4944, 2945, 9068

Auto

43.9 22%

Teleop

113.1 56%

Endgame

45.8 23%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4388, 159, 11220

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4388, 159, 11220

Auto

10.5 9%

Teleop

70.4 62%

Endgame

32.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score212.1pts

Blue projected score116.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.2
Score range: 86–243
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 174.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.8Season APEX273

43.9Auto10.5

113.1Teleop70.4

45.8Endgame32

25Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	25
teleop	268	100
endgame	66	70
foul	0	0
total	388	195

Result

Final score

388 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 127 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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