Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.97 – 34.98

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.7 ±13.3

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 68.49Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 24.64Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 51.84Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.2 ±14.5

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 12.16Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 4.24Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 18.58Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4068, 3648, 4293

/ 100 compat

Projected

145 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4068, 3648, 4293

Auto

26.3 18%

Teleop

72.6 50%

Endgame

45.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4550, 2083, 7485

/ 100 compat

Projected

35 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4550, 2083, 7485

Auto

17.5 51%

Teleop

8.0 24%

Endgame

8.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145pts

Blue projected score35pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110
Score range: 3–177
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.7Season APEX261.2

26.3Auto17.5

72.6Teleop8

45Endgame8.5

20Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	13
teleop	55	48
endgame	25	25
foul	15	5
total	110	91

Result

Final score

110 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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