Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.22 – 138.8

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.6 ±11.7

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 139.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 49.47Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 103.98Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.3 ±11

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 122.94Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 4.93Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 10.93Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4499, 1977, 1339

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4499, 1977, 1339

Auto

64.1 22%

Teleop

156.8 54%

Endgame

71.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2996, 4418, 10333

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2996, 4418, 10333

Auto

31.1 24%

Teleop

73.5 56%

Endgame

25.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score293.2pts

Blue projected score138.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.4
Score range: 107–325
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 176.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.6Season APEX446.3

64.1Auto31.1

156.8Teleop73.5

71.6Endgame25.8

43Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	40
teleop	92	49
endgame	10	40
foul	15	0
total	154	129

Result

Final score

154 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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