Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.79 – 196.18

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

255 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 125 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±12.8

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 37.98Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 88.78Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 28.03Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.2 ±11.2

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX -0.73Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 24.81Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 172.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9501, 1619, 8334

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9501, 1619, 8334

Auto

28.1 19%

Teleop

77.6 53%

Endgame

42.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9586, 10114, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9586, 10114, 8044

Auto

58.0 30%

Teleop

84.5 44%

Endgame

48.4 25%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.8pts

Blue projected score196.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.4
Score range: 124–227
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 601 vs event baseline 174.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.9Season APEX596.2

28.1Auto58

77.6Teleop84.5

42.1Endgame48.4

25Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	65
teleop	122	155
endgame	59	126
foul	0	0
total	255	346

Result

Final score

255 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 125 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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