Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.08 – 267.57

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.8 ±14.5

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 75.68Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 21.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -13.85Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.2 ±12.2

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 20.76Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 236.37Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 10.44Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4388, 5493, 2945

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4388, 5493, 2945

Auto

19.7 25%

Teleop

50.8 65%

Endgame

7.8 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3288, 498, 4183

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 498, 4183

Auto

54.0 21%

Teleop

154.0 60%

Endgame

49.3 19%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.1pts

Blue projected score267.6pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -184.5
Score range: 52–299
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 174.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.8Season APEX466.2

19.7Auto54

50.8Teleop154

7.8Endgame49.3

24Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	43
teleop	3	197
endgame	4	86
foul	0	0
total	25	326

Result

Final score

25 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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