Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.09 – 63.43

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.7 ±13.3

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 69.37Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 11.63Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 30.09Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.9 ±12.8

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 24.9Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 14.47Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 24.06Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4068, 4550, 159

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4068, 4550, 159

Auto

22.1 19%

Teleop

48.6 42%

Endgame

43.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3807, 10333, 3648

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3807, 10333, 3648

Auto

17.3 30%

Teleop

28.6 49%

Endgame

12.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score63.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.7
Score range: 31–143
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 176.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.7Season APEX281.9

22.1Auto17.3

48.6Teleop28.6

43.9Endgame12.6

35Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	11
teleop	67	24
endgame	18	8
foul	0	0
total	117	43

Result

Final score

117 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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